If you have ever looked into cryptocurrencies, each of the coins, and how trends arise, you may have heard about using a Bitcoin time analysis. Martin Armstrong is a huge name in the area of prediction and the concepts behind time differentiators. I know that sounds a little strange, but his principle is that time is not linear, and that it is cyclical. While other people may try this with a more in-depth concept of his writings, I am not a professional mathematician.
That is why I am going to take the basic concepts for this experiment.
The Math of Analysis
Of course, before looking at this mathematical prediction, it is a good idea that you understand what Bitcoin is. Check out our article here.
Using Pi (3.1416) and multiplying it by 1000 = 3,141.6 days. However, this result is now in days, but we need it in years.
So; 3,141.6 divided by 365.25 (to incorporate a leap year) = 8.6012 years.
What that means is that in anything you look at, you are likely to see a full cycle of approximately 8.6 years. However, the thing that we are now missing is a starting point, or a critical day, in Bitcoin. There are three historical events that we can use for that cycle start date:
- Bitcoin whitepaper - October 31, 2008
- Genesis Block - January 3, 2009
- The first popular transaction using bitcoin - May 22, 2010
For those who are interested, here is an image of the two pizzas that cost 10,000 BTC: Yes, in today’s money, that is an extraordinary $95,885,000.00!
Anyway, I digress.
Because of the interest of the pizzas, dates, and the 8.6-year cycle, we will use the transaction date as the beginning of the cycle.
Using the date and cycle time of 8.6012 years, we come to the date: December 27, 2018. Of course, that date is already in history. Therefore, we want to look at another cycle of the period.
August 3, 2027
The Results
We now have two historical dates to look at, and one to predict:
- May 22, 2010 - Beginning of cycle
- December 27, 2018 - End of cycle one
- August 3, 2027 - End of cycle two
In May 2010, the price of BTC was less than $0.01, as you can see by the cost of the pizzas.
December 27, 2018, the price closed at $3,654.83. Three months before that date, the price was $6,676.75, so the price fell by nearly 50%. Three months after December’s date, the price was at $4,087.07; a slight increase in price, but September 27, 2018, was at an average high in comparison.
Although we are unable to accurately predict the exact price at the end of another cycle, we can look at a tenth of the period:
November 6, 2019.
$9,360.88 was the closing price of BTC on November 6, 2019. a pretty massive rise from December 2018. but if we look at three months before that date again, you will see that the price was at $11,478.17 on August 6, 2019.
Looking at the results, and the dates that you see above, we can start to predict how the prices will be in the future. The 10ths of the cycle are:
- September 15, 2020
- July 26, 2021
- June 5, 2022
- April 15, 2023
- February 23, 2024
- January 2, 2025
- November 12, 2025
- September 22, 2026
- August 3, 2027
Significance
In all honesty, it is impossible to tell how the next vital dates will pan out with price increases and decreases. You will need to look at how the trend looks at the time of reading. However, with just over seven years left until the time the cycle ends and starts again, there is enough chance to gain more perspective. Understanding some of the guides will help you to get more of an idea about how the prices will fluctuate around that cycle.
The real question, though, is, will you use the dates as indicators for a previous high, as shown, or will you use it as a lower point to buy the BTC? If you are unsure about brokers, we have a dedicated section to it.
Possible Outcomes
Assuming that the dates of the cycles are significant, and not random dates, we need to take a look at what sort of things we might gain from those dates. For starters, it does not necessarily mean that the dates will coincide with any kind of price reversal - if it did, everyone would have been millionaire traders, and BTC may have been in a completely different place to where it is now.
- Optimistic Bitcoin Market - At this moment in time, this seems like an unlikely event. However, we have seven years left to see. Perhaps the market will rise beyond anything we have ever seen. Thus providing a considerable raise by August 3, 2027.
- Pessimistic Bitcoin Market - Of course, given the current situation, this is seeming like a more realistic approach.
- This whole article is nonsense - Even more likely for those reading it, this article seems like a massive bubble of nonsense created on some mathematical prediction template that has nothing to do with Bitcoin, and robots will take over.
Conclusion
Does anyone know if the cycle is relevant? No, but they don’t know if it is irrelevant, either. In a climate that has only been running for 12 years, an eight-year cycle is not something that we can accurately predict. One thing I do know is, for those of you who take something away from this, you will be very happy, or leaving me comments of disgust.